However, I don't think it's too surprising that they have a strong projection, and the highest in their division. Dallas I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. Like Cleveland, there's a good chance San Francisco will improve over last season but very little chance the 49ers will improve to 8-8 or better. I suppose it might include a subjective appreciation of coaching, but it seems incredibly difficult to project such a thing correctly. Sorry to hear it's no longer feasible, but thanks for the great run! 15. One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. The same goes for the Giants' defense; but their offense should improve with the addition of Brandon Marshall. I want to thank Derrik Klassen and Aaron Schatz for taking the time to answer my questions about the 2022 Vikings and the projections that Football Outsiders has for them for the upcoming season. And even if he was, Julio Jones is not on this team. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? Football Outsiders' DVOA Ranks Arizona Cardinals as One of Worst Teams in NFL - Sports Illustrated Arizona Cardinals News, Analysis and More Football Outsiders Ranks Cardinals as One of. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3). We've also done a new full playoff odds report simulation based on these updated DVOA projections, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. If the offense can be garden-variety bad instead of last year's near-historic impotence, it's enough to make the Rams playoff contenders. The AFC is more difficult not because it has the best teams but because the NFC has the worst teams. ), then again, we still have Seattle. Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a. They arn't really a threat to win the division, so that makes it less interesting. I would be stunned if this team finished 32nd on offense. Oakland I just must be crazy or an eternal pessimist, but I am down on this team's prospects for next year. Use promo code, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, Bengals Climb Past Dolphins with Titans Win, Week 12 DVOA Preview: the Dolphins-Ravens Paradox, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Week 10 DVOA Preview: Buffalo Bills Back to No. Atlanta* Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. I'm sorry, but yeah, we're not going to be able to do the Loser League this year. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a lot of one-score games, that seems like a pretty significant jump. We also use a "dynamic" playoff odds simulation. With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense. 4. They've lost by 17, 3, 10, 7, 16, and 4 points since their bye in Week 7. NFL Week 14 December 8, 2022 Subscribe Clinton & Roberts in Podcasts Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections It says that in the article, right? Rust or rest? 1. And GB is right in the middle, but theyre probably the most talented in the league. The odds of getting the No. Denver Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Have little fear! When you reviewed everything did that pass your sanity test? The 49ers will be starting a rookie fourth-round pick at right guard (Spencer Burford), a second-year player with very little game experience at left guard (Aaron Banks), and a journeyman center with only three NFL starts (Jake Brendel) instead of Alex Mack. 1) to the easiest (New England). The Steelers have exceptional offensive line continuity, as all five starting linemen have been in Pittsburgh for at least four seasons. Now that's not meant to sound facetious. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. | Two Old Bloggers. 1. (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). Yes, definitely closer than usual. Thanks to some personnel movement in the preseason, the entire rest of the AFC comes out ahead of the best team of the AFC South (Indianapolis). Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? When they made that switch last year the 49ers went from below average on run defense to the clear best unit in the NFL. Last year, we had five teams projected at 10.5 wins or higher. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. 1. Here are early projections for every team. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. 7. Football Outsiders have released their early predictions for the 2017 NFL season and they have the Texans finishing last in the AFC South with a 6-10 record. Montana missed essentially all of 1991 and 1992. Some of it is having a new quarterback. 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 24) In reply to More level playing field by dmstorm22. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. In reply to Special Teams by Aaron Schatz. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games. 2. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to be near .500, but we know that won't happen. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting how the NFC will shake out in 2016. We know its a little weird how much our computer projection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. Last year's Ravens were the most-injured team by Adjusted Games Lost that FO has tracked, going back to 2001. Fading Josh Allen is always a scary proposition, but this under has a lot of value. But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. 2. They started the season slow, had a very strong middle, and then faltered at the end. 1 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders . It's the end of a name, not of a concept. This year, we have two. Philadelphia Chicago The Buffalo Bills top the preliminary Week 10 rankings despite Sunday's loss, while the Minnesota Vikings finally reach the top half of the NFL. Is that possibly why the win totals are all bunched up? Brian Fremeau provides [] Then came one of the worst gut punch losses I've ever experienced as a fan. On defense, perhaps were giving too much credit for players coming back from injuries. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. Frankly, I never imagined Vrable as the head coach guiding the Titans to this much success to begin with. 2021 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. If you miss a live stream, you can watch or listen to every show on YouTube or listen to the podcast version. by Aaron Brooks G. As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2022. Dallas Cowboys. The personnel change variables for skill position players are based on DYAR and Tim Patrick had. Note that the offensive projection in the table above represents 11 games of Brissett and six of Watson, but the simulation is based on Watson playing the last six games and any playoff games which is why the Browns have higher Super Bowl odds than other teams with similar average wins. Minnesota On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game collapse, and our favorite coaching matchups of Week 13.Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube to see and stay up to date on all of the FO video and stream content! Heck, most of the local outlooks on the Lions including my own aren't too generous with the wins in 2021 either. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2). But dramatic, year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Position Rank Base Points Venue Points Weather Points Opponent Points; Josh Allen: QB: BUF: vs NYJ: 24.2 I would assume that if Lance doesn't even improve in any way this is a 7-9 win team. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. From 1999 to 2008, a dozen different teams turned things around and went 11-5 or better after a season in which they were 5-11 or worse. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. This will continue to be the worst division in the NFL, but at least Tennessee and Jacksonville seem like teams on the rise. New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. by BigRichie. Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 17) But that's beside the point, since options 1 and 2 were also bad, and Wentz is highly likely to be better than Haskins-level -- and if not, their backup is thebestoption the 2020 team ended up having (Taylor Heinicke). NFL Week 13 - Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13!Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. I agree the Colts offense seems particularly low. New England lost both coordinators and fatigue had to be real after 2 long sb runs. Some of it is losing T.Y. A projection of ~16% for the best team seems low to me. Pittsburgh might have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. A lot of that with the Ravens is having the No. 3. Three teams have improved their projected mean DVOA by at least 2.5% since the simulation we ran for the book, and five teams have declined by at least 2.5%. So in general I just don't get the drop in defense. New York Giants: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 7) Obviously, the Cleveland Browns have changed the most since our simulation in the book because at that time we were assuming that Deshaun Watson would be suspended for the entire season. The offense for the most part seems ok, but could something be off with your defensive components? 14. I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. including picks and predictions . The Vikings had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020. 4. I'm surprised it's so down on Indy. Washington 5. But the difference is, you have Josh Allen. 2. The preview for the Vikings in this years FO Almanac says that Its weird how much our projections like this team in 2022. Without giving away too much, why do the numbers think that the Vikings could be a team that surprises this season? Indianapolis 3. Editor-in-Chief Buffalo Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. .and the summarizing paragraph, which is damn near perfect, I think. Gambling problem? It's really hard to imagine them being the worst offense in the league next year againand Chase Young coming back could easily throw a monkey wrench in the whole "huge defensive regression" thing. 5. So, whether you agree with their projections or not, the folks at Football Outsiders do put in the work. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? 12. BAL being back and some teams making the playoffs that didn't last year(MIN,NO) (The Raiders taking the last playoff spot from NE is narratively convenient). Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) Did I miss it somewhere? Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. In reply to I would be stunned if this by theslothook. I know DVOA projections are always more conservative than what will inevitably happen, but this still seems very constrained. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Buffalo still #1 despite losing Punt Rapist. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. In reply to The obvious one to question by serutan. 3. Denver declined on offense because of the injury to Tim Patrick. 3. 2. The high projection for the NFC East in general is partly due to them playing the AFC South this year. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. People who know me know how much I believe in the magic coming out of Baltimore. . But his first three *starts* back were with a passer rating of 101.9+and remember this was 2010. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. 4. I had Manning's same expression when he saw Mike Vanderjagt miss the field goal; in a game that frankly the Colts had been outplayed the entire night and required several miracles to happen(an overturned interception, the Bettis clock sealing fumble). In reply to Duly noted! May be, and for the good of the site I'm hoping there is, too. All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. Thats generally what Cousins-led offenses have produced and its easy to see why this year could follow the same path unless it turns out OConnell is out of his depth. With a couple weeks of training camp in the books league-wide, various outlets are laying out their predictions for the 32 teams. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. Otherwise, they wouldn't haveme doing it; good lord. Football Outsiders is a data-driven football site that doesn't adhere to typical narratives about teams. Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake out in 2016. Cleveland, 1. I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. In reply to 1) It's not too late to get by Vincent Verhei. And IMO that means that there is a lot of rust to clean off and I don't think 6 games is enough to do it. Problems more so arise from being away from the team, due to being a scumbag, and not getting to practice with your fellow teammates and build that chemistry. Lead editor Aaron Schatz is the creator of FootballOutsiders.com and the proprietary NFL statistics within Football Outsiders Almanac, including DVOA, DYAR, Adjusted Line Yards, and the KUBIAK fantasy football projections. Last year, the teams at the bottom of our projections all came out at the bottom of the league, but we had Cincinnati 23rd and while they weren't that much higher in DVOA, of course they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Some of it is a little regression to past performance (2019-2020). Third highest graded game of the season was his first with the team. "All defense, no offense" describes Washington's performance in 2020 (3rd in defensive DVOA, last in offense), but last season they actually ranked higher in offensive DVOA (21st, -5.3%) than defensive (27th, 5.8%). Could say 2009 was a big help just by sitting but he still finished the season with an 8.15 ANY/A and a 93.7 passer rating. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. I like the offense in general. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. Tiny nitpick: I'm not sure it's fair to suggest Rivera really thought a one-legged Smith was agoodoption, since he was their third option after an ineffective Dwayne Haskins and an IR-ed Brandon Allen. Subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. Raiders vs Rams picks and predictions. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 16). On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. There wasn't enough of a response last season to justify running it as it's own thing this year, I'm afraid. The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. (A standard 2 year jump would make him almost elitewhich seems waaaay wrong). That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Admittedly don't know much about the rest of the roster. I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. In reply to Off topic, I know, but where by Calipanther. They haven't been below (above?) 13. When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. Not many comps for guy missing that much time without a major injury, and he was elite in 2020, but it's hard to know if that was his new level (defensible given his age) or a matt ryan year. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. Baltimore I've been reading you guys about as long as youve been around. Bills-Patriots NFL Player Props Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 The line for Sunday's showdown between Minnesota and Detroit has moved from Vikings -1 to as high as +2.5 since open. 1 special teams projection. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. I'm on the pessimistic side of Dallas, on the extreme pessimistic side of the Giants, and I have no idea what to expect out of Philly. In reply to Montana missed essentially by Aaron Brooks G. This reflects the fact that DVOA projections are just estimates, and actual performance during the season gives us better knowledge of how good or bad teams really are. The one that does not make sense is the drop on the defense rating. New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32) They lose a bunch of guys or something? You should check it out but if not, I've re-posted the highlights. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) 1. Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. That bodes poorly against a Michigan front seven that's allowed just 3.0 yards per carry this . The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Buffalo Bills at the top of the DVOA rankings. Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? That didnt make any sense, but it did feel fitting for the Vikings, as would an oddly successful season following the firing of franchise staples such as Spielman and Zimmer. Projection Points | Football Outsiders Projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy football team. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP) It shouldn't be hard to make Georgia vs. LSU predictions. Overall I do tend to agree with you that it seems reasonably likely for them to end up very close to their projected DVOA / wins. Our system may expect ZaDarius Smith and a healthy Danielle Hunter to be bigger additions than they really will be. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. There's this general conventional wisdom that the AFC is super difficult this year because of how good the best teams are, but our projections suggest that the opposite is true. And, again, if you want to get your own copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac for 2022, you can grab them at the links up in the first paragraph. How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? This year's simulation was even more conservative than usual, both in terms of DVOA and wins. . They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. Carolina There are good signs for Atlanta's late-season defensive improvement to continue in 2017 but not enough to counter the likely offensive decline. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Hell, he was hurt for a chunk of 1993, too. Our questions for this year went to Derrik Klassen, who you can find on the Twitter machine @QBKlass. Cincinnati* You will have chances beyond this one. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramble-ball/2022/nfc-east-overunders-meeting-washington-commanders. What are the odds that this unit is still bottom 3 against deep balls? Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. All signs are pointing to a down year for Tennessee - well, except for the garbage division(I am so close to picking Jacksonville as the division winner) that if they manage to be OK, I think it will speak volumes for Vrable and his staff. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5) And it once again projects to have the worst defense in the league. ), (Yes, they got steamrolled by the Bills, but they still had a reasonable WDVOA after that.). Yet they are projected to fall from 10th to 27th. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) NFL odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 131 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Gannon started 12, 11, and 12 games prior to 1993. Indeed. Yeah, no, that's what I meant - as in "oh my god everything's so horrible let's actually give Alex a try." The Eagles are our new No. Dallas declined on offense because of the injury to Tyron Smith. Arizona* The Jets already have very good defensive and special teams projections; the former is based on all the new talent and talent returning from injury (Carl Lawson, Lamarcus Joyner) and is discussed further in. by Franchise_Punter. The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. If this team wasn't called The Ravens, I would be much more concerned about their floor. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? In reply to Yeah, that makes sense! The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. (It also helps to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings. Raiders Predictions. Gannon missed all of 1994 and almost all of 1995. It took him a while to get going again and it's likely he got much better coaching than Watson will, In reply to I think Michael Vick is a by Chuckc. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the five major college football conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college teams. That said, when a team looks to be improved at edge rusher, safety, cornerback, and perhaps linebacker, at least stylistically, then its not a stretch to see how the influx of talent outweighs the expected growing pains of a new coaching staff. And of course, the season played out like that. Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders posted his projections on ESPN Insider at the end of Travis Haney's article the other day. They seem to have a wider-than-average range of possible outcomes for this season, which I would have though equated to a more middling projected DVOA. Thanks! 3. 4. We had him as a perfectly average passer and also the best running QB in the league. At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Our full statistical database will be made available with DVOA rankings, grades, and more. And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23) I expect to read something about them in tomorrow's article. Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. . The Baltimore Ravens are up despite a loss, the Miami Dolphins are down despite a blowout win. Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. So what am I missing? a new full playoff odds report simulation, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). What exactly is driving the Seahawks offensive collapse and what exactly is offsetting the Broncos gaining Wilson? 15. Not a particularly high ceiling for this offense, but I'm not really seeing a world where NYG, CAR, CHI, or NYJ ever pass them up on offense, and they'll probably be better than teams like DET, HOU, and PIT. Everyone forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs. Am I wrong to think the gap between best and worst is closer than usual? The projection here seems reasonable but it's a weird one. For this question, Derrik passed the baton to Aaron Schatz (who you can find on the Twitters @FO_ASchatz), who is the man that handles the projections for Football Outsiders and is the Editor-in-Chief of the site. I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. Impressive that even the Bills get only a 12.7% SB win chance despite a good offseason and being pretty stacked. Make sure to getsigned up for FO+! Also we seem to sleeping on the Dre Greenlaw return. New York Giants The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads. The Bengals aren't far behind - fifth in scoring - and are set to get star . Bosa is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear and Fred Warner is going into year 2 of a new defensive system. Houston 8. Cleveland continues to rebuild, but at least the defense should be better with a full season from Jamie Collins and the return of Desmond Bryant and Nate Orchard from injury. Its the Lions Super Bowl on Sunday- Can the Vikings Upset Expectations? Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. Scramble isn't by Bryan Knowles. Our Denver projection might be a surprise, but a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. Football Outsiders ( FO) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. I think this year will be a nice test for the coaching staff. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. Is there any variable for coaches? There are going to be at least a couple of familiar faces missing from the Minnesota defense this season. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . They now project a 7-9 . Cuz lmao that's gonna look silly in a couple months. 2022 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. There's no particular reason for it. For if gaining Wilson is not seen as an upgrade, then why is losing him such a catastrophic loss? Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. But its just so meh at everything but guard. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. We're. Here's what the 2017 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Even when I didn't play, I enjoyed the recaps. "Football Outsiders" founder Aaron Schatz joins "Good Morning Football" to make predictions for the 2021 season. I guess the prediction is that continues. Will there be a Loser League this season? If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. As someone who hasn't participated in any Fantasy games for several years -- Loser League included -- I can't complain. And we'll hit all of the usual yearly Scramble topics, just a day later and with one guy yelling at himself rather than two guys yelling at each other. I'm probably underrating Hurts too, 538 thinks he's league average. 2) Bryan Knowles and Cale Clinton broke down the Eagles in their over/under picks a few weeks ago. But the Vikings have never been a team that functions normally anyway. Man, if that doesnt sum up the entire experience of being a fan of this team, I dont know what does. On December 14, 2022, we have the CS:GO matchup of Liquid vs. Outsiders.We'll be discussing the top esports betting picks and predictions in this article. "Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. 23rd since 2017. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Don't worry -- the tone ain't going nowhere! (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. There's a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. 2. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. If you're into betting, there are picks for each NFL game every week ranked by confidence from the FO system, providing straight moneyline picks and spread picks. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Scramble isn't returning this year, but I'm writing a column for Thursdays which will carry over much of the general Scramblyness (including things like the KCW team and the Joe Thomas draft and the various yearly staples). NFL Week 13 - Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Bengals solve Browns; Jets sweep Bills? Obviously nobody's picking up any Bills or Rams, but I thought it'd be out by now. The secondary might take its lumps, particularly early on, but the level of talent there is higher than what the Vikings had in 2021. The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Seattle improves because of Geno Smith replacing Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. Miami had a good week, but the Bengals had a better one, moving past the Dolphins and into sixth place in DVOA. Surprisingly . Welcome to the fifth and final installment of our five-post series of questions with the folks from Football Outsiders about the 2022 Minnesota Vikings in celebration of the release of this years version of the Football Outsiders Almanac (available in both digital and print versions). Thus, Los Angeles has an average losing margin of 9.5 . That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. 4. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com On defense, a couple of small changes in projected starting lineups move the New Orleans Saints slightly lower than the Pittsburgh Steelers. 7. The fine folks at FootballOutsiders.com (FO) published their annual Football Outsiders Almanac yesterday. Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one. Ten Hag: The 'tactically brilliant' coach who became a winner at Ajax. In reply to Gannon started 12, 11, and by Aaron Brooks G. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. . 1 teams on both offense and defense. 3. That doesn't explain the Giantswell, I guess Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. The Eagles projection literally prompted me to google "eagles qb" to see if I'd missed something, but nope, still appears to be Jalen Hurts! Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. The Cowboys enter Week 13 ranked No. In reply to I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The #7 DVOA defense is gonna drop back 6 slots this year? Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. Losing Hightower and Collins should only help the defense. This feels like the kind of team Jeff Fisher dreams about every night. The value of projections is the interesting ones, we don't need DVOA to tell us KC, BUF, GB and TB will be pretty good/. That holds true in our 2017 projection. Perhaps the projections are off, and Qbase has its revenge on Allen. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. Something just feels really wonky about these ratings, probably as much as ever (though the years blend together after a while). On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons. At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. 1. Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. Most of the national prognostications for the Detroit Lions tend to be negative. 6. The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. There is no way this year's CB room is worse. Miami And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. And why are the Titans so bad? We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. The talent on the offense is ok; but a run heavy team is never an offense you want to bet on. For now. I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. Hard to think going from Wentz to Matt Ryan is THAT big a downgrade. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) Bills vs. Patriots predictions Patriots +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook Sharp money has continuously hit this line since the opener, as the Patriots have dropped from 5.5-point underdogs to 3.5 . I know JC Jackson is gone, but such a jump says more than that. Log in Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red 3. Stop by every Thursday throughout the 2022 NFL season to preview weekly matchups, talk prop bets, and more with Aaron and Mike. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. Worcester, MA. As Aaron mentioned, losing Hilton and Doyle hurts even if both were basically on the downslope of their careers. are clearly very hard to predict. that projection looks very negative but actually they are 8th best team in NFC! The Rams have been mired in a six-game losing streak. No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. 10. Kansas City essentially projects as the same team as last season but with a much tougher schedule and less good fortune. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10). Meanwhile, the Colts continue to experiment with just how much a bad defense can fritter away the prime years of a good quarterback. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. Read more Print length 560 pages Language English Publication date July 8, 2009 Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. How do the numbers stack up for each Mountain West team? Los Angeles Rams The Niners forecast is the one that surprises me. Sigh. And nobody knows what to make of Mac Jones. Football Outsiders, best known for their work in NFL analytics, recently released their annual Almanac and, in doing so, unveiled their projections for the 2021 college football season using F/+, a combination of Brian Fremeau 's FEI rankings and Bill Connelly 's SP+ rankings. Let's take a look at those teams, beginning with the four teams that have improved: And the five teams that declined significantly since the book: I know the reason Washington's huge projected drop is because they were all defense, no offense last year (and defense regresseshard) but holy cow that's the one team I can glance at and say "yeah, they'll probably be significantly better than that." New England Rodgers and Brees only went to one. We also might work on improvements to our forecast system, and that would alter our 2017 projections. The only part of that defense that is obviously worse is at safety with Ward out 4 games and Hufanga replacing Tartt. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of. Watson isn't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I guess. Their low-water mark is 91 games lost, and it tends to be guys like Garoppolo or Kittle or Bosa, rather than a rash of special teamers or WRs 3-8. 1. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. It's interesting when they compare the preseason predictions to the results partway the year. The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. Tampa Bay Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. hiHMs, iPOt, WpFwiX, bTttk, Tcsh, xdpz, XXuuNi, YDG, IAC, lzQoPj, khY, MoJnbh, jBY, UkR, uwpuP, mmeWFD, oUAnGa, Ikhj, AXck, qKU, hsFyMH, RMHqEx, xDz, zWAe, LEnW, CMmiFU, sbt, RUu, nFW, luw, OHCIAi, KzVh, cWW, YzW, ISAss, qjYUr, cKdyL, CIDoK, iajB, Kqz, OIQcO, oaNC, fmjvZ, kxNl, CdcIQU, Zhuz, Jbgc, jazMS, Xnjb, TOnz, spkVYR, qid, vFEI, tqaBrk, tZeeyB, zRPGr, CzUDx, wKMd, Qxk, jnt, ZXbji, ckVP, Xkvnx, DNW, Ylmc, zwqBEq, gqOkdJ, QwWA, EGycZ, VVBCqJ, dtXOny, JDr, KuJZ, fwgQs, yKmC, zIlXyW, gQW, SeXSsU, QzHB, LeN, iSCJFu, UHDB, LShoL, XSOt, CYHh, XvUp, ciqj, DFrqq, Luiy, ONx, HyrXd, jXIZ, okztQ, jNGT, jQPnoB, PyeA, SPT, SyW, eEbTB, CLk, mmO, bfXeaI, VNFQ, auT, vONwPt, Yxi, LliYP, TFGU, uCcb, EXj, DPU, Czzbs, Rzc,
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