They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. 3 TCU. They pulled away for a 43-22 win on the legs of Donovan Edwards. Heading into Week 8, here's a playoff projection. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 73.1% chance to win the division. Sound about right. There are not too many differences between Georgia and Michigan, but the Bulldogs do everything just a bit better than the Wolverines. Michigan is a juggernaut, though. It was revealed that Williams suffered a severe hamstring. Our AI predicts that the Utah Jazz will Lakers title odds improve as the team is starting to play better. If you like Georgia, getting on them now before the Peach Bowl is advised. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. Here's a look at some other teams on the extremes or about to have a real change in the quality of their opponents on one side of the ball or the other: The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year. Today's episode highlights Kyle Shanahan having a winning record for the first . The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . Arizona is 7-5 O/U overall, with a 4-2 O/U count at home. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. The third huge winner of the week? Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. 538 has our odds of playoffs at 82% and -7% is the minimum amount of optimism that I find healthy to withhold ;) If we lose the next 3 straight we still have a 35% chance, which is great. Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in. After selecting Georgia at +215 two months ago, we have been too right to jump off the ship now. In the first game, he put up some big plays with his legs. The rest of the way, it ranks second. Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) November 7, 2022 The NFL is a truly ridiculous league. New England enters Week 14 with a 5-7 O/U mark on the year, including 3-3 O/U on the road. That puts them ahead of playoff hopeful teams like the Commanders (17th . The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Vikings dominating the fluky 8-2 teams - I knew this seemed so familiar. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. If you want an in-depth analysis, please check back closer to New Years Eve for our official College Football Playoff picks and props. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.). The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. It's also possible that the Colts last week had a bad game when they only scored 3 points against NE despite averaging 16 points per game. Does not account for traded picks. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game. The 49ers offense looks better if you take out the Week 1 game played in a monsoon against the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. The Funniest College Football Bowl Game Names, Best College Football Over/Under Bets For Week 14, Best College Football Underdog Bets for Week 14, Best College Football Over/Under Bets For Week 13, Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL SNF Week 14 Betting Pick December 11, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets NFL Week 14 Betting Pick December 11, Morocco vs. Portugal World Cup 2022 Quarter-Finals Betting Pick December 10, Bucks at Mavericks NBA AI Pick December 9th, Timberwolves at Jazz NBA AI Pick December 9th, Lakers Title Odds Move Up With AD Asserting Himself, Hard Rock International Bares Initial Plans for Renovation of The Mirage, Station Casinos Buys 67-Acre Lot for New Casino Resort, Baker Freakin' Mayfield Impacts L.A. Rams Super Bowl Odds, Fertitta Entertainment Completes Acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek. Perhaps there's a learning curve on that front. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. Editor-in-Chief Get pressure on Stroud and he develops happy feet in the pocket. The playoffs will expand to a 12-team format beginning in 2024-25. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. 4 USC to win their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 11. Michigan won The Game in a laugher by a score of 45-23. They. The Lakers went 8-2 SU before losing their last two Hard Rock International unveiled the new renderings for the redesign of The Mirage. Michigan, Georgia, and Ohio State are not newcomers to the College Football Playoff. They are outsiders without much confidence behind the Horned Frogs. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Heisman Trophy favorite, Caleb Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the game. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Stroud and the Buckeyes were unable to move the ball and I cant see TCU figuring it out. If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down. #FTTB https . 3 TCU will tee it up in Glendale, Arizona, in the Fiesta Bowl. Total playoff odds: 93.1% | Weekly change: -2.3%. Our total DVOA stats page lists each team's remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps? Those schedules rank 23rd and 24th in Weeks 12-17. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. more? In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. I just can't figure out what DVOA sees in the Packers offense to say it's the 9th best. They are in after finishing 12-1, with a loss in the Big 12 Championship. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). TCU isn't getting any respect. The five teams that have faced the easiest schedules of offenses so far (Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans) have schedules the rest of the way that rank somewhere between 10th and 18th. Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh has just a 1% chance of claiming a division title and a 6.1% shot at making the playoffs. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Surprise tournament quarter-finalists Morocco will look to continue their impressive streak as they take on Come check out tonight's game as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Dallas Mavericks! Are there any others? Current record: 12-3 | Weighted DVOA: 35.8 percent (1) Clinched playoffs | Super Bowl odds: 25.9 percent He struggled to figure out the Michigan defense last year. They entered today with a 74.6% chance at the postseason by Football Outsiders' playoff odds report, and odds are that number is only going to go up. That includes the Seahawks (31 so far, 5 to go), the 49ers (30 so far, 7 to go), the Jaguars (29 so far, 9 to go), and the Falcons (28 so far, 6 to go). What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? I don't think NE's linebackers are fast enough to contain QBs who can make things happen once they escape the pocket. The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. Mayfield rallied the Fertitta Entertainment has closed its acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado. In reply to I just can't figure out what by Cheesehead_Canuck. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Wilson, who the Pats have played twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer'. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. Filtering by Week 11 ATL LBs yielded no results. The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. The Minnesota Vikings drop seven spots in DVOA, from 17th to 24th. On most sites, a Dallas Cowboys headline will get you extra traffic/comments. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. Our friends at DraftKings have the Seahawks at 12th most likely to win, which seems to be the current. TheSportsGeek looks to add +3.5SPREAD -110ODDS OUR PICK CHARGERS PLACE BET! The Football Outsiders playoff odds report thinks they have a 5.9% chance of making the playoffs. TCU is off the map on the College Football Playoff odds board at +1600. While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. The Cowboys are now ahead of the Eagles for the NFC East lead in DVOA although the Eagles are still two games ahead where it really matters, the win column. That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go). Not hard to imagine the Giants losing out the rest of the way with their schedule, but I can imagine the Lions at 8-9. This is the playoffs, though, and everyone is even now. Why? These statistics are complete from 1984 to 2021 and will be updated weekly throughout the 2022 NFL season. Do we have a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan coming up? Rather than the offensive incompetence from the Jets that it certainly felt like when watching the game? 4 team in the College Football Playoff? Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Winning the division I don't see, but I can envision them beating out the Giants for the last playoff spot. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. The Eagles drop to fourth after a close escape against the Colts. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. As in, the number one -- the number of wins the Patriots have over the Broncos to give them an edge to land the top seed in the . VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. No. How many do they have to lose before we can stop making those lists? Other teams with easy schedules for their defenses the rest of the way include the Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, and, as noted above, Chargers. Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams ranked by DVOA? It's possible that the Lions had a bad game and didn't score at all against NE despite scoring 45 points the week before and averaging 25 points per game. If Williams does not pull his hamstring, does USC win that game? To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. It's a longshot, but in the grand . Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming off of a blowout home loss to rival Michigan. The hardest schedule of run defenses so far belongs to the Packers, who have an average schedule the rest of the way. The Christmas Eve matchup between these teams takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race isn't over yet. In other words, the oddsmakers at Bovada did not have much faith in USC beating Utah. The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves. They play the No. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here ). It may happen with the easier schedule. They're 9th in offensive DVOA, but only 15th in VOA. The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% December 06, 4:02 pm ET. The Wolverines have the easier matchup in the semifinals against TCU. In reply to Worst 8-2 Teams by Jimmytossinbeachble. 1 target is covered, he has issues working through his progressions. So the Bucs are still the favorite to win the division, despite a 3-5 record and being a game behind Atlanta. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. But, for the tippy-top of the league . So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 13 weeks of 2022, . Michigan and Ohio State have considerably better odds to win the college football championship. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. The Bulldogs are the favorites on the College Football Playoff betting odds board. All college football betting odds for Clemson vs North Carolina can be found at B ovada Sportsbook.. Moneyline: CLEM: (-280) | UNC: (+230) Point Spread: CLEM: -7.5 (-110) | UNC: +7.5 (-110) Total: 63.5 Over: (-110) | Under: (-110) College Football FEI Ratings. College Football Playoff odds No. 6 sacks for 48 yards will do that, I suppose. Oddsmakers clearly think that this will be semifinal that isn't that competitive -- something that has happened quite often in the CFP era. Aaron and Mike are joined by Connor Rogers from SNY.tv & NBC Sports to go in-depth on the New York Jets and their Week 14 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. 1d ago. No. Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. Ohio State may not deserve a second chance after getting embarrassed on their home field. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. On the other hand, the Commanders . That's a sign of a battle-tested and complete team that deserves to be recognized as a worthy foe, not just a cute little story. The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. It wasn't mentioned in the quick-reads write up, but I'd suspect a lot of Mac's DYAR came from opponent adjustments against the #5 pass DVOA Jets (-10.8%). The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Then we are going to make our prediction for the college football National Championship. It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . In reply to A better question would be by KnotMe. College Football Week Bowl Game Odds, Opening Lines Friday, December 16, 2022 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Miami University Fiu First Guess: UAB -10.5 Actual Line: UAB -11.5 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl Troy vs UTSA Fiu First Guess: UTSA -2.5 Actual Line: Troy -2.5 Saturday, December 17, 2022 Wasabi Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati 11 Utah gets it done vs. No. The Wolverines and Bulldogs are undefeated, while the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes each have a loss. That moves the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. 4 Ohio State No. Jacobs (+1800) and Adams (+5000) also have the seventh- and eighth-shortest odds to win Offensive Player of Year. Stroud has to learn to read a good defense quickly. FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. The lines will certainly move between now and New Year's Eve based on a variety of factors, and it'll be interesting to see how things progress during the layoff. San Francisco gets 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday night dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. It is the first playoff for the TCU Horned Frogs. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. Let's call it 6%. Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. Yet their schedule of pass defenses gets even easier the rest of the way -- if we don't include their Week 18 game with Denver. For Weeks 12-17, the average pass defense faced by the Chargers allows 14.3% DVOA. Do not be surprised to see these two in the College Football Championship. But other teams do see their schedule of run defenses get much easier. Miami DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Click on the button below to get free picks delivered to your email daily TheSportsGeek.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense. And although NE's pass rush isn't as good as Dallas', unless the Vikings miraculously fixed their OL woes in 5 days, Cousins is likely be facing more of the same in terms of constant pressure. That produces playoff odds and Super Bowl . NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. They are coming off a win in the underdog role over the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures. The one team they play which is significantly better against the pass is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which won't matter if you have Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs. Until then, the Vikings deserve to be lampooned as the ultimate paper tiger, In reply to It would be so funny if they by riri. I'm shocked that the Patriots get 60% DVOA for their game against the Jets. That will generate the new narrative. So again as mentioned by others if Watson/Doubs/Watkins when off IR/Lazard can just rotate games where one of them actually does reliably get open so 15-25 yard passes can happen a couple times a game you are back to 2019 or 2021 offensive production. 1 seed. All Rights Reserved. I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days. Aaron and Mike will then wrap up with a quick preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and Dolphins-Chargers. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: collegefootball | pageType: stories | According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank 14th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and weighted DVOA. The Zimmer teams made decent runs in 17 and 19, but faded as the talent on the defence got old. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. Expect the College Football Playoff Championship to go down to the wire in the 4th quarter. Aaron Schatz, Vince Verhei, and Bryan Knowles are here to share some of the most surprising, mind-boggling, and outright embarrassing statistics through Week 13 of the 2022 NFL regular season. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the mean DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. For our look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 because I know that a lot of readers will be curious about the fantasy football implications here. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) 1 @GeorgiaFootball pic.twitter.com/YNb89sMriY. The Losee project would Baker Mayfield delivered a performance for the ages on Thursday, two days after he joined the Los Angeles Rams. But playing in a dome, Folk is likely to kick 5 to 6 40-yard field goals to give NE enough points to not have to rely on a last minute punt return TD to score. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), Reaching the Conference Championship Game. San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games. They've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far (third-hardest pass defense and hardest run defense as stated above). *Football Outsiders simulations have the Vikings slated for 12.1 victories this season better than any other team in the NFL. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th. Here's where Football Outsiders has their chances after four weeks: Playoffs: 15.5% Division: 10% Super Bowl: 0.2% The Bears' 0.2% chance at winning the Super Bowl is tied with the Steelers and Dolphins for the 25th "best" odds in the league. Change from Last Week = no change Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight. To be fair, I am over 50 years oldat heart. Jacobs' props are 89.5 rushing yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams . It's possible that the Jets just had a bad game and only scored 3 points (and two yards of net offense in the second half) despite averaging 20 points a game. Again, Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers will play a big role in the college football championship. The public does not have much faith in TCU following their 31-28 loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. It is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know and follow your local laws. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed. With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title? document.getElementById( "ak_js" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. While not astronomical, those odds are, at least, not zero. TCU does not have a defense that competes with the other three teams. NFC playoff clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 14 December football brings division and playoff-clinching scenarios for some teams and elimination scenarios for others. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 after beating the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Big Ten Championship. This year Georgia has a target on their backs going into New Years Eve. In fact, the Cowboys are now No. J.J. McCarthy has a far better arm that he gets credit for. So let's do that and take a look. Alabama would have been in under the 12-team system. Can TCU get this done and pull off a big upset? The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. Brown. For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this game. What can we expect from Stroud against Georgia? But here's the list of the 10 worst 8-2 teams. The Horned Frogs plowed through arguably the toughest schedule in major college football and found ways to get it done in a variety of different ways. ), In reply to Got to love FO (not being by BlueStarDude. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. They also have the Vikings with a 42.2 percent chance of getting. Your email address will not be published. Expect the defensive pressure to get to Stroud, as well. We break down how they can clinch a spot in the 2023 NFL Playoffs in Week 14. Saints vs. Another big change belongs to the Minnesota Vikings. The DLine is playing like they're on fire. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. However, the College Football Playoff committee avoided a major controversy by denying the Crimson Tide. On the other hand, those teams had much higher DVOA than this year's Vikings, who are way in last place now. Visit our College Football Betting Sites page for the latest College Football Playoff odds and the best online sportsbooks. 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. TCU and Ohio State may not be perfect, but their resumes are still better than Alabama. Got to love FO (not being sarcastic). Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. 2022 NFL MVP odds: Jalen Hurts on Patrick Mahomes' heels; Joe Burrow moves up to No. There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. The special teams mirage of the first four games was revealed, which doesn't help. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as . It's no surprise that the top two seeds are favored, as both Georgia and Michigan . NFL Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions Bengals vs. Titans Odds Early Pick: Lean Titans -2.5 (to -3.5) Sigh. NFL Week 14 - Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Football Outsiders Data Show! This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Sure, the Dolphins have a great offense, but four of Los Angeles' seven remaining opponents are in the bottom eight for offensive DVOA. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. As a result of the loss, Ohio State is on the College Football Playoff odds board. 4 Ohio StateNo. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. Lets get into the College Football Playoff odds and our College Football Playoff predictions at TheSportsGeek. There are trends becoming more obvious with every week, and every week presents new bargains for us to acquire in our leagues to fortify our lineups ready for that big push. The 2022 version of the Vikings seem more like the 2000 Vikings, a team who's run was up and ready for a big crash starting with 41-0 zip loss the NYG in NFC Championship. Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. 1 RB for 2023, commits to TAMU, CBS Sports All-America Team: Big Ten dominates. It also uses ESPN's Football Power Index and the committee's rankings to forecast teams' chances of winning. The Chargers' schedule is filled with teams that are better against the run than the pass, including the Raiders (32/22), the Titans (13/1), the Dolphins (29/9), the Colts (14/6), and the Rams (26/5). Their overall playoff chances dipped 2.5 percent, but they're still in very good shape according to the Football Outsiders table: Playoffs: 93.4 percent Division: 76.6 percent Wild Card:. Current SB favorites: #BillsMafia 24.5% #FlyEaglesFly 19.8% #RavensFlock 9.4% #GoBucs 7.3% #ChiefsKingdom 6.6% #GoPackGo 5.1% #DallasCowboys 4.1%. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. Georgia beat Michigan and then Alabama in the 2021-22 CFP Championship last year. They can look better than they are. No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. Bills at Patriots Thursday Night - NFL betting odds, picks, tips Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and New England. (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now! They also had what seems like a very poor draft. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. In reply to To be fair, I am over 50 by Bryan Knowles. As already mentioned this does show up in DVOA. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). is way better than this. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) visit the Detroit Lions (5-7) on Sunday. 1:54 pm ET, College football bowl odds, picks, computer sims, 2022-23 bowl confidence pool picks, predictions, Top bowl confidence pool picks, predictions for 2022-23, USC QB Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Eli Drinkwitz trolls Kansas over NCAA investigation, 2022 CFP odds: Georgia, Michigan open as favorites, USC's Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Stanford hires Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, Bobby Petrino emerging as candidate for TAMU OC job, Michigan mourns death of honoree Dametrius Walker, Report: WAC, ASUN merge in attempt to form FBS league, 2022 awards: USC's Caleb Williams shines as big winner, Rueben Owens, No. That moves the 49ers up five spots from 11th to sixth this week. That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. That's up from 25.2% last week. It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. Your email address will not be published. Only the Cincinnati Bengals (12th so far) have a harder schedule of opposing offenses for the rest of the season. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. Then finishing with 3 wins gets us back to 95%. BetMGM books are reporting 73% of bets and 89% . 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. For one, we know he will officially be without one of his favorite receivers. TCU vs. Michigan Prediction: 35-20 Michigan Wolverines. One other victory that might be a bit larger than expected belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in overtime. Comparing their schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely wild. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. All they had to do was beat the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. NFL Playoff Odds, Fringe Teams Odds as of Dec. 8 3 Week 14 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances Vikings At Lions Vikings current seed: 2nd Check out our Saints vs. Creator of DVOA andDYAR 3 - The Athletic . They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. It'll be fascinating to see what happens on the odds board with both of these matchups over the next month. This is not a paywall*! We have updated our playoff odds report to account for the likelihood that Jimmy Garoppolo can return for the playoffs for San Francisco. TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. The Patriots ended up with a PGWE of 99.9%, and even if you remove the punt return touchdown they still have PGWE of 98%. With the crazy NFC North results this past weekend, Football Outsiders' playoff odds in that division have changed considerably from a week ago. Are the writers over 50 years old and still living the days of early 90s? Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the Peach Bowl.If you ask anyone outside of the Ohio State sphere what . Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed. While we give the Horned Frogs a better chance than +1600 of winning the National Championship, this is not a good matchup for them. The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . Notice that three of them made it to the Super Bowl! With the Patriots' loss to Green Bay, we now have a situation where all the numbers involved in the Football Outsiders playoff simulation favor Denver except for one. We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. That's up from 55.3% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 17.8%. TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? From Week 12 to 17, they face the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Just do not expect the same game as last year. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. AFC playoff projections 1. About these numbers: Each week, from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the projected playoff field based on the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that . (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz tweeted earlier this week that New York's playoff odds would jump from 50% to 73% if the Giants claimed a Week 13 victory. 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. 2? Pittsburgh DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of T.J. Watt. Per Football Outsiders, a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) in Week 7 sliced the Niners' chances of making the playoffs by 20.9 percent. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. 2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS | Football Outsiders NFL Playoff Odds www.footballoutsiders.com Last edited: Nov 16, 2020 9 Nightshade and 6 others Nov 16, 2020 #2 Saint Spud Hall-of-Famer Joined Mar 6, 2002 Messages 12,030 Reaction score 29,035 Age 43 Online Our defense is balling right now. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). That did not happen, as Utah blew the Trojans out of Allegiant Stadium, 47-24. Other teams where it gets harder include the New York Giants (23 so far, 4 to go), the Tennessee Titans (21 so far, 6 to go), and the Cincinnati Bengals (18 so far, 5 to go). The Chargers have played the easiest schedule of pass defenses so far, averaging 11.1% DVOA. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. The Chargers have also played the easiest schedule of run defenses so far. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. TCU is the most unlikely team to win the four-team tournament. We have the best defenses and offensive lines in college football if this is the matchup. The four-team College Football Playoff is set, and it will consist of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious. That's a little better than a 1/17 shot. New England Patriots. This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Certainly not the Alabama Crimson Tide. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? DAVE is currently 16% preseason forecast and 84% actual performance for teams with 11 games, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games. The Trojans were in control with a 17-3 before Williams came up lame and limping. This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. The Vikings have played the No. We went over the Chargers already but a number of other teams see their schedule of opposing run defenses get much harder from here on out. 1. It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone. As such, they have been given long playoff odds by Bookmaker.EU. When we look at remaining offensive schedules, I'm going to include Week 18. It's straight forward because they are facing the second place Detroit Lions who sit five games . Get FO+ Already a subscriber? USC was going to the College Football Playoff. Ohio State vs. Georgia Prediction: 38-28 Georgia Bulldogs. Find out why he likes the Bucs and 49ers to cover, plus what his leans are on the Bills-Chiefs and Bengals-Titans spreads. At +275, Michigan is the second favorite to win the College Football Playoff. 4 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the No. There was some hope that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the College Football Playoff. I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. On October 25, the 49ers' odds of making the playoffs were 20% per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), 27% per Football Outsiders, and only 16% on 538. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Since backing Georgia two months ago at +215 odds, not much has changed in our view, though. Georgia survives, but the Wolverines will be ready to play this time. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick. Odell Beckham Jr. during his free agency visit with the Dallas Cowboys. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. The Pac-12 Championship Game on Conference Championship Saturday in College Football looks and feels like points are on the board for the College Football underdogs, who wind We resume our college football over under bets in Week 13. 2 Michigan and No. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. The Horned Frogs went from afterthought to undefeated regular-season power over the last three months and will take on a Wolverines team that is undefeated and riding high after their second straight Big Ten title. Ohio State was listed as the third favorite to win the College Football Playoff before the Pac-12 Championship Game at +800. 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